The Market

I wrote a piece in 2018 that questioned ORH’s value resilience in the face of new development swarming the local neighborhood. In 2019, One Rincon Hill answered all those questions. The building saw 19 sales averaging $1,545,118, which was roughly in line with the average sales price in 2018. Despite this, price per square foot jumped up nearly $150.

The Metropolitan was subjected to some difficult news at the turn of the new year: California’s statewide rental restriction policy AB 1482. Will rents be affected over time?

Radiance saw 5 total sales in all of 2019. With 99 units in the building, this ~5% turnover rate is not unusual. Once a building hits maturity; when all original units are sold by the developer and the first wave of resale is well underway, it is standard to see a 5-10% turnover rate each year.

Madrone had a less-than-stellar year compared to its own typically superb standards. From studying the data of condo sales in 2019 it’s almost ironic that the sales prices were lowest during the months leading into Summer and the grand opening of Chase Center; September 8th, 2019, whereas after the opening toward the latter end of the year, the price per foot steadily increased again.

Arden had 9 sales in 2019. Each and every sale exceeded a $1.5M price point, something no other building in San Francisco has done (to my knowledge) in a single calendar year. The average sales price was $1,989,633, also an extravagantly high number. The simple takeaway: everyone loves Arden.

Mission Bay has seen extraordinary growth over the past decade, incomparable to anything San Francisco has likely ever seen before. The massive redevelopment that took place from 2005 to the present has seen thousands of new residents move to this coveted neighborhood.

The market in 2019 also wasn’t favorable to Infinity owners; IPO pay-days never saw cash flood the market as many experts predicted, and condo values across the board were virtually flat no tangible appreciation was seen in any building built prior to 2016. Those two factors alone made it challenging to sell homes in all local buildings, let alone a building facing an uphill battle to compete with local development.

The Watermark (501 Beale Street), a long-established waterfront icon on San Francisco’s Embarcadero, has had bad luck recently: a temporary navigation center has been established next to the building. 

January 2020 has been a predictable month in District 9. With 44 sales, we are on pace with a typical start of the year based on recent years of sales data. Experts are predicting the economy to remain mostly stable through the end of 2021 now, which will more than likely reflect transparent prices in the real estate market.

The Harrison showed continuous growth in 2019, increasing both gross sales price point as well as price per foot. The building itself reached a maturity point in 2019, where the remaining inventory available to be purchased off the plan from developer is all but sold-out.