Mission Bay's Extraordinary Growth

Mission Bay has seen extraordinary growth over the past decade, incomparable to anything San Francisco has likely ever seen before. The massive redevelopment that took place from 2005 to the present has seen thousands of new residents move to this coveted neighborhood. In turn, condominium values have skyrocketed in response to the high demand.

Mission Bay sits in the Southeast corner of the financial district, spanning down the Eastern bayside to the Dogpatch and bordered to the West by Potrero Hill and The Mission. As its name implies, Mission Bay used to be a perfectly concaved inlet of the bay on the south side of the old downtown district. From 1860 through 1910, shovel by shovel, that bay became the land that we know today.

In essence, Mission Bay is ‘landfill,’ just as other neighborhoods in San Francisco like The Mission, parts of the Financial District and Treasure Island are. The city saw such a population rush during the 1940’s gold rush, more land was required to house the growing population.

The Silicon Gold Rush placed the same residential housing strain on the city, requiring more homes to be built for a rapidly expanding population. Mission Bay was a logical choice for the next wave of development.

The city of San Francisco decided to create their first master planned neighborhood; a coordinated approach to redeveloping a giant parcel of land, focusing on retaining as much green space and outdoor amenities as possible.

See the 1997 Antonia Bova Architects original Mission Bay master plan drawings here

The master plan laid out 4 condominium projects to exist in this new neighborhood. BOSA, a major developer from British Columbia that has built 150+ projects on the west coast of North America was tasked with developing the first 3 residential condominium buildings in Mission Bay. Madrone and Radiance came in 2008 / 2009, with Arden following closely in 2015. CIM brought the 4th and final building; One Mission Bay.

As beautiful as Mission Bay looks today, it’s not so long ago that the public weren’t overly joyful about the idea of a master-planned oasis just south of downtown. San Francisco residents were actually disgusted at the idea as recently as 2009.

IndyBay wrote a piece on jan 24th, 2009 about Mission Bay being toxic.

Mission Bay in 1999

Around the same time, the old San Francisco was getting acclimated to this new version of their city, with beautiful tree-lined streets, waterfront park space maintained by the city and winding walking trails, condominiums began selling. The original sales value (price per square foot) of homes sold in Madrone & Radiance in 2008/2009 was just over $700/foot.

While the world was on the brink of a global financial crises, most home values weren’t affected until later in 2009. This data set, in theory, should be mostly true of the value San Francisco & Peninsula residents placed on the newly formed Mission Bay.

Over a decade later, Mission Bay tells a much different story..

With all 4 condominium developments nearly sold out and the Chase Center opening in 2019, Mission Bay has become a dramatically different neighborhood. A strong influx of business transformed Mission Bay from a distant, sterile neighborhood into a thriving community of passionate people who love where they live. 4th street is now lined with cafes, restaurants, grocery stores and health services, with a few more notable businesses on the way. 

This has catapulted home values north of $1,250/foot for condominiums in the new master plan, with many selling significantly over $1,400 per foot. This near doubling in value is the culmination of a beautifully executed master plan by the developers tasked with Mission Bay.

There is one final phase of the master plan yet to be executed, which has conveniently just broken ground; Mission Rock. The giant parking lot to the south of Oracle Park is now under construction, bringing an additional 1,200 rental properties and BMR’s to the neighborhood. The additional parkspace will be the crowning jewel to this already beautiful neighborhood.

New developers will also have their chance to bring architectural significance to the district. Studiogang, the developer behind the stunning MIRA, is poised to bring another gravity-defying project to Mission Rock. 

Time will only tell if prices will continue to appreciate at such an astounding rate. If the past tells us anything, property values in the area on the tail-end of the Mission Rock project will likely see continual growth before plateauing. Human psychology is drawn to what’s shiny and new, after all.