Arden | A Year In Review
When I started Condo Weekly in 2018, my original thesis was based on an experience with a buyer at Arden, which is widely known as the crown jewel of Mission Bay. This buyer had sold their unit after 27 months of possession buying off the plan, ultimately netting themselves a profit of $402,000! This gem of information convinced me of two things: that people needed to know about this, and that the information needed to be shared at scale.
It’s clear that BOSA learned from its experiences building Madrone and Radiance, as Arden has been designed to perfectly suit the Mission Bay buyer.
Arden had 9 sales in 2019. Each and every sale exceeded a $1.5M price point, something no other building in San Francisco has done (to my knowledge) in a single calendar year. The average sales price was $1,989,633, also an extravagantly high number. The simple takeaway: everyone loves Arden.
The most notable trend in the building is that, year after year, the average sales price continues to spike. 2018 saw 15 sales at an average price of $1,837,400. A price point jump of more than $140,000 is unheard of in a flat market. Moreover, the price per foot increased from $1,273 to $1,386. A growth curve this steep is not unheard of, but it certainly is exceptional.
Construction completed in late 2015 with the majority of the building sold out within 18 months of completion. The conclusion here is that Arden has been outperforming the market since its birth. Long Bridge was Mission Bay’s sleepiest street until the lots to the west of Arden began developing, opening the roads to throughway traffic. A slight fear struck potential buyers when the lot directly west of Arden broke ground. Buyers were worried that the opening of Chase Center coupled with the increased street traffic would cause this once-sleepy neighborhood pocket to turn into something unbearably vivacious. Time has told a different story. Exiting Mission Bay to the west is much more easily achieved by taking Mission Bay Boulevard North or Channel Street, leaving Long Bridge relatively peaceful.
The kicker, which allowed Arden to exceed Madrone and Radiance’s initial resale values, is the building’s spectacular San Francisco skyline views. As with any new construction, the best units tend to sell first, leaving buyers in waiting to swoop on them upon resale.
708 Long Bridge #712 sent the market into a frenzy. At 1,945 sq/ft, selling for $1,471 per foot, the $2.87M 7th-floor sale eclipsing all expectations. The days on market across the board for all 9 sales was just 27 days, too. This paints a vivid picture of strong buyer demand.
In 2020, expect to see much of the same. With 1 sale already in the books for $1,319 per foot and 2 active listings on the market asking an average of $1,330 per foot, Arden will continue to set pricing records in Mission Bay. Buyers want to live in the building, and they are willing to wait until the unit they want comes to market.
One Mission Bay, Arden’s neighbor to the East on Long Bridge Street, is a remarkably different product although on the surface both buildings share similarities. Both fully utilized their roof deck space to create a resort-style living experience complete with a pool, rows of deck chairs, cabanas and adjoined gyms. One Mission Bay’s unit sizes distinctly feel smaller, even though the average square footage per unit isn’t too far off.
The more we sell new development buildings, the easier it gets to tell a great development from a good one with merely a handful of tours. BOSA knocked it out of the park with Arden!