Radiance saw 5 total sales in all of 2019. 

With 99 units in the building, this ~5% turnover rate is not unusual. Once a building hits maturity; when all original units are sold by the developer and the first wave of resale is well underway, it is standard to see a 5-10% turnover rate each year. 2018 in comparison was a remarkable year with 10 total sales. 2016 and 2017 combined saw only 6 sales.

From the 5 sales in 2019, we see very similar trends to Madrone, Radiance’s neighbor to the West. A general consensus from buyers touring both buildings prior to Chase Center’s grand opening on September 8th; “Will this stadium bring increased foot traffic around my building and disrupt my life?”

Madrone saw a steady decline in price per foot sales value across multiple units prior to September as buyers imaginations ran wild. When there is an unknown variable in real estate such as a stadium opening down the street, it’s understandable that buyers are a little hesitant. With 200+ evenings booked per year for events at Chase, the worry for both buyers & homeowners was warranted. 

Values jumped back to normal after Chase opened as people could tangibly get a feel for what the new neighborhood amenity would bring. Although Radiance has less sales data to form an educated opinion on, the general consensus was similar. The unknown aspect around neighborhood serenity likely caused many buyers to pass on homes in both buildings.

Remarkably, the DOM (days on market) at Radiance was at a historic low in 2019. On average it only took 25 days to sell a unit in the building, down from 38 days in 2018 and 35 days in 2017. Days on market is often a lagging indicator to true performance, as local building experts deploy robust off-market sales strategies to try and sell units before hitting the open market.

Radiance had one sale in 2019 that was truly off the charts. Unit #413 sold for an impressive $1,582/foot. This particular unit was extremely rare, with a 300 sq/ft patio and private entrance to the rooftop amenity space. These units have seldom sold in Radiance, and when they do they command a premium. Having direct access to 8,000 sq/ft of curated outdoor space, BBQ’s and firepits is unquestionably more desirable than other units without such access in the building. The home took a mere 33 days to sell at a price that exceeded the buildings average by almost $400/foot. From an agent’s perspective, this is an impressive feat.

2020 should see much of the same for Radiance. With Chase Center being fully operational and the southern portion of Mission Bay’s development complete, the local neighborhood is thriving. The Mission Rock project to the north will be the final phase of major development local to Raindance but shouldn’t have as much of an effect on Radiance and Madrone as Chase Center’s disruption.

With 3x units on the market in Q1 with an average asking price just shy of $2.4M, Radiance is set for a big year in sales. A 6th-floor listing with an expansive patio deck overlooking the Bay and the San Francisco skyline is asking an astronomical $1,800+ per foot. If this sale is successful, a new price point will be established for the high-end of Radiance, which will likely trickle down to increase the median home value of the building. Now that Mission Bay’s new development supply is all but depleted, expect to see homeowners test the waters to resell their units at a slightly higher cadence than the previous few years.