Mission Bay is one of San Francisco’s newest neighborhoods, following a well-executed master plan set forth by the City of San Francisco in the early 2000’s. From 2007 - 2016, construction ran rampant in the neighborhood, populating 4 of South Of Market’s most desirable addresses; Madrone, Radiance, Arden & One Mission Bay.

4th Street is now arguably the cleanest street in San Francisco (strongly opinionated here, but walk it for yourself and tell me I’m wrong) and the amount of green space within a 3 x 5 block radius feels like you’re living in a very different city than that north of the channel.

This master plan has lead real estate values to literally double in the past decade (click to download our 2011 through 2018 sales data guide if you’re curious). It’s no wonder that major cities around the world are heavily focused on systematic development, as it’s drastically enhancing pocket-by-pocket growth in terms of livability, accessibility, a sense of community, local transportation and ultimately a holistic appreciation of resident’s lifestyle.

Mission Bay is a cream of the crop success story in which cities around the country will study and try to emulate in their own expansion plans.

The best part, Mission Bay isn’t done yet. The Mission Rock project is the final phase of Mission Bay’s master plan, breaking ground in 2020.

What’s even more exciting than the addition of over 8 acres of park space, is the 1,400 + new homes, 40% of which will be for low to middle-income earners in the form of affordable housing. Throughout the history of this city, never has a project of this magnitude taken into account the increasingly challenging economic conditions of gentrification and displacement, and built social efficacy into the fabric of it’s own development. I applaud city planning for that.

Furthermore, a resilient design for rising sea levels and eventual adaptative mechanisms are featured in the overall design. See for yourself: https://missionrock.com/

In times like these, I feel a genuine appreciation for the people who have dedicated their lives to the progress of this world-class city, and factor in more than just a fat bottom line when it comes to such grand-scale development.

Speaking of bottom lines, however, what will Mission Rock do for further increasing the desirability, and price point, of Mission Bay as a neighborhood?

It’s hard to argue anything other than continual appreciation for an already over-stimulated, ever-increasing price per foot district. Mission Bay sits just below the East Cut as the most expensive price per foot for modern condos in the city, showing there to be yet another level above for which it could reach.

In similar major metropolitan cities like London, New York and Hong Kong, the ultra-modern, sleek, brand new buildings in the heart of the financial district command the highest price per foot of any condominium. After all, location, location, location, right?

In more recent years with developments like Hudson Yard (just north of Tribeca / Lower Manhattan) being a stone-throw away from the FiDi, yet boasting modern highrises AND ample parks and green space, homebuyers are shifting their attention from immediate location and access to 10-minute commutes in favor of livability.

It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Mission Bay’s price per foot continue to rise, eclipsing $2,000 per foot in the next 3-5 years (barring any major economic collapse) and competing with the top-end luxury of the East Cut.

Want to brainstorm the best times to buy or sell in Mission Bay, shoot me a text or send me an email.