LUMINA | A Year In Review
LUMINA hit its maturity in 2019; mostly sold out from the Tishman Speyer (developer) sales team with only a handful of residences remaining for sale off the plan; including the spectacular 201 Folsom #41B, the 3,000 sq/ft penthouse with massive patio space on top of the tower asking $7,495,000.
LUMINA began selling homes in Fall’15/Winter’16, with the first wave of original buyers reselling homes showing up in Early 2019. We’ve seen this trend across the city for years; original buyers reselling their homes around the 3-year mark after purchasing; traditionally seeing exceptional appreciation.
Most real estate professionals balk at the idea of a short term appreciation curve, which traditionally isn’t a ‘thing,’ but this micro-climate of condominium real estate within one of the strongest RE markets in the country, buying off the plan and re-selling after the first few years tends to be a decent investment strategy. See our Listing Trend article here, highlighting an Arden owner (BOSA’s 3rd development in Mission Bay) that made $402k in 27 months.
LUMINA saw 31 sales in 2019 averaging $1,862,518 and $1,491 per foot, a significant jump from 2016 when homes were selling for $1,246 per foot, a ~16.5% increase in 3 short years, or 5.5% a year.
The most notable sales in 2019 included 30th+ floor E-stack units in 338 Main Street & 201 Folsom Street (LUMINA’s 2 towers). The E stack is one of the premier 3 bedroom homes in 338 Main, boasting 1,780+ square feet. Of the 3x sales, 338 Main 32E and 34E netted $3.5M, whereas 201 Folsom 33E sold 1 month afterward and lost $200k in resale value, only netting $3.3M. An argument could be made for the home selling in November, or the home sitting on the market 44 days compared to 3 DOM & 8 DOM respectively for the other two sales, as well as the orientation the unit’s were facing being different. 338 Main’s E stack facing North with skyline views, where as 201 Folsom’s E stack facing South with water views, but neither are oriented toward the East, the premier LUMINA bridge view. The most notable indicator of loss of value to us, unfortunately, is the agent who listed the home was a non-SF based agent. With such a hyper-local buying niche, out of town agents typically struggle to sell units for the same price as building specialists; the main reason (assumptively) being not having a ready and willing list of buyers wanting a home in the building, or deep ties with local agents. Non-local agents tend not to care as much about maintaining the buildings overall value as it’s a transactional process for them; sell the home fast, keep their clients happy. For building specialists who have multiple clients in any given building, 1 detrimental sale might affect the values of other client’s homes making both agent & homeowners values truly aligned in reaching maximum sales price. Not only for a single transaction but for all sales thereafter.
From our perspective, the moment we see an out-of-city agent representing a condo we tend to begin negotiations much lower and aggressively push for our buyers to buy below market value, and more often than not we’re successful.
Days on Market was higher than any expert would have anticipated averaging 61 days in total. DOM plays an important role in the marketing and negotiation process, with different strategies making sense at incremental periods along the listing lifespan. Once a property hits 30 days on market in a flattened real estate market, it’s recommended to price the home at the exact price the owner is looking to sell for. The gamified nature of trying to trick buyers into seeing a home valued at less than what the owner would part with it for only serves to piss off the buying market and their realtors after an extended period of time.
Nini & Kevin Gueco
Some agencies still managed to execute the perfect sale - 0 days on market, including our building specialist’s Kevin & Nini Gueco, who own multiple homes in 201 Folsom;
“After helping a few clients purchase new homes from the development team, we quickly fell in love with the building. We saw the amenity space as our oasis in an ever-growing downtown population, a place to regenerate and recharge our batteries for the rigors of the fast-paced life we enjoy living. Having known the trends of micro-pocket appreciation in San Francisco buildings, we strategized in purchasing 2x units in 201 Folsom; One for us to live in, another to rent then eventually sell. LUMINA is an exceptional place to live. Not only is it Gueco Real Estate’s hub, it’s also our playground, and we openly share our living experience with every client interested in LUMINA and it’s surrounding towers.”
The tried and true method of having pre-populated buyer lists is still the most valuable thing a listing agent can bring to the table in any property sale, especially with the economy teetering on instability after a record-long boom cycle. A buyer who actively loves the building and has been waiting for their ideal home to become available is a much better buying prospect to work with than the traditional List - Stage - Open House- 30-day sales cycle.
Luckily, LUMINA appeals to such a wide variety of buyers that prospectus buyers aren’t too hard to find. Tishman Speyer has a track record of beautiful developments that continue to sell exceptionally well long after construction. Take The Infinity for example; a 12-year-old development that has increased its price point year in, year out, for its entire existence. LUMINA projects to age in similar fashion. The units are designed around functional interior square footage and the amenity package caters to owners of all kinds; including the traditionally hard to sell Single Family Homeowners looking to downsize. This opens to potential buyer pool from the typical local renter market to most of the Bay Area, from Palo Alto to Walnut Creek to Marin and beyond.