The Infinity had a down year in 2019, seeing sales cut down to almost half of the previous year’s volume. With 16 sales across the 650 unit development compared to 29 sales in 2018, the volume deficit could be pinned down to a few local market conditions:

• 2019 saw MIRA begin sales directly across the street offering brand new construction with equal views to that of 301 Main & 338 Spear

• The Avery ramped up sales at the beginning of 2019, controlling most of the high end of the condo market’s interest

• 2019 was notably off the peak of San Francisco’s condo appreciation curve, resulting in a relatively flat value market

• The temporary Transbay Terminal is set for redevelopment without a project initiation date

The Infinity is the oldest of the local buildings. Thus, homeowners increasingly need to update their homes in order to compete with the surrounding market. Interior remodeling is a challenging task for owners who occupy their units, not to mention the difficulty in finding crews that can operate with the building. That is, follow the HOA requirements closely, provide the right insurance, among other necessities. Challenges aside, those who have completed remodels in the building have done exceptional jobs.

Take a look at 301 Main #15CD, two units combined into 1 with a $3M plus renovation.

*Subtle plug to an old Youtube show I started in 2017: #TourWithTim. 

With MIRA rattling through sales at 280 Spear directly across Folsom Street, it isn’t any wonder homeowners were tentative about listing their home on the open market. When new construction sits adjacent, older buildings tend to have a challenging time selling for anything less than a steep discount. That said, the Infinity saw upward of 10 homes listed on off-market portals such as Top Agent Network and Aalto. This is a trend that will continue in 2020. 

With 650 homes, there will always be 10-20 homeowners thinking about selling. The strategy to sell when local inventory is high will be to test the waters with top-performing realtors in the neighborhood and list off-market to see if they have any buyers interested in their specific home.

The Avery also began selling more and more homes in 2019, just a few blocks up Folsom Street at 488 Folsom. The average asking price for homes at The Avery is equal to the top end of The Infinity, with median homes asking a similar price per square foot to the penthouse collection in this 2008 building. When the top of the market is flooded with inventory, owners looking to sell higher floor homes will be hard-pressed to demand top dollar. Older construction will almost always warrant a discount in buyers minds, regardless of actual value. 

The market in 2019 also wasn’t favorable to Infinity owners; IPO pay-days never saw cash flood the market as many experts predicted, and condo values across the board were virtually flat no tangible appreciation was seen in any building built prior to 2016. Those two factors alone made it challenging to sell homes in all local buildings, let alone a building facing an uphill battle to compete with local development.

Finally, the temporary Transbay Terminal is set for re-development kitty-corner from 301 Main Street. The only problem is, nobody knows when. I’ve asked the development team at MIRA multiple times for a projected date of construction at Transbay, hoping the developer would know before the rest of us in the market, only to hear the same response: we don’t know yet. Having a major project directly across the street with a proposed 16 story building, 9 story building and numerous 1-2 story buildings and park space without a projected beginning date makes it extremely difficult to sell anything north-facing in both LUMINA and The Infinity. Buyers like to know everything surrounding the home they’re buying, especially if it’s north of $1M! 

Without a concrete plan, a potential buyer’s imagination will run wild. It’s difficult to convince someone that the unknown they’re fearful of isn’t as important as they think it is. People want to know what views will be blocked, what the construction will look like, and will they hear construction noise day & night for an excruciatingly long time. All these factors add to the challenge of selling at The Infinity. 

Socketsite began reporting on the temporary Transbay Terminal in 2017 without significant news breaking since. As soon as the project has a steadfast plan, we will distribute the news.

In the interim, 2020 will likely be another low to moderate sales year in The Infinity. We encourage a similar pricing strategy to other 10-year-old plus buildings: list at fair market value, be transparent on price. Buyers won’t overbid and certainly won’t like being negotiated up with a non-transparent listing price.